Final League One Promotion + Relegation Predictions

Promotion

1st – Plymouth Argyle
Plymouth Argyle moved to the summit of League One on the weekend, and while boss Steven Schumacher will be hoping his side can stay there, I have every reason and confidence to believe they will.

Of the sides in top six, I feel that The Pilgrims are the most fluid and flexible, and are perhaps well-suited to attacking the run-in with the belief that they can face whatever challenge is put in their way.

There are a couple of interesting subplots that could develop, with the only side that has beaten The Pilgrims this season at home – Port Vale – still to play on the final day, while they have the added attraction of a Devon Derby also on the horizon.

And, one thing that Argyle have shown this term is their ability to overcome adversity. The loss of Mike Cooper to injury could have derailed their push for promotion, and yet it has made them stronger. A slight blip in the form of a heavy defeat on the road against Barnsley could have threatened to damage their confidence, and yet they have responded with back-to-back wins without conceding a single goal. Adam Randell being out through injury was another problem at first, but they have managed to overcome that too.

Argyle have shown that they are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to home form, and so they will be confident that they can continue that into the season’s conclusion; if they can, it may well provide the backbone that they need to maintain their play for the title.

They are a side that problem solve as they go, they have a manager in Schumacher who – as former boss Ryan Lowe eluded to – has transformed them to new levels, they have a squad that they strengthened well in January and they have the belief on and off the field that they can do it. No one expected them to get this far, and I genuinely believe that they will do it.

2nd – Barnsley
There is a lot to be said about momentum in football, and it appears that The Tykes have found it at the perfect time, as they look to chase down a spot in the top two.

They have a tasty clash on the far horizon in the form of Ipswich Town, but Michael Duff and his side have shown they are the men for the big occasion this term. Dismantling Plymouth Argyle and Sheffield Wednesday in their wake, they will feel confident they can also poopoo The Tractorboys’ push for promotion by winning at Oakwell.

Michael Duff is a manager whose stock is certainly on the rise, and after masterminding Cheltenham Town to promotion, Duff is now looking to make it two promotions on his fledgling CV already; the way his side are playing, who is to stop them?

They provided an indication of what they are capable of in their demolition of Wednesday live on Sky, and perhaps gave us a precursor as to how their season may fare.

This Tykes group has got better and better as the season has gone. Duff has implemented his style on it more so with every passing week, the players – notably James Norwood and Adam Phillips – have grown immensely under his stewardship, and the big players with whom we spoke highly of in the start of the campaign (your Andersen’s, Cadden’s etc) have well and truly come to the fore.

I am all about backing a side that just do not know when they are beaten and having the mental fortitude to bat away all the questions that are asked of it. Barnsley are that team for me, and with Ipswich Town still to play and a squad full of confidence, I am going to be bold and back them to finish in the top two.

Play-Off Winners – Ipswich Town
Losing Play-Off Sides – Sheffield Wednesday, Bolton Wanderers, Peterborough United

Ipswich Town fans feared that their promotion credentials were all but over around the new year, but they have regained belief in recent weeks. That belief has been founded upon a new-found defensive solidity, and Kieran McKenna has slowly gone about his business in being able to find a formula that works. They are the form team in the division at the moment, and they will be hoping that they can turn that confidence and added consistency into genuine credentials for promotion.

Sheffield Wednesday were – at one stage – seemingly the side to beat, but after seeing their unbeaten run come to an end against Barnsley, slight cracks are beginning to appear. The loss of Josh Windass and George Byers at a key point in the season is not what Darren Moore would have wanted, and it is likely they are going to have to maintain their promotion bid in their absence. They have proven a tough nut to crack throughout the majority of this campaign; the question now is whether they can bounce back from adversity.

After struggling in the early part of the campaign, The Posh have found a new lease of life under an old dab hand in Darren Ferguson. His return to the club has enabled them to unearth the undoubted quality that this United side had on paper, and it looks as if they have been able to find form at just the right point in the season. With Clarke-Harris leading the line, they will be confident they can make a play for the top seven.

Verdict: I find it inconceivable to think that Sheffield Wednesday do not get promoted, and yet here I am predicting that very fact.

I don’t know why, but I have a genuine underlying nagging doubt as to whether Darren Moore will have what it takes to get this side over the line. I said it earlier in the season; Darren Moore is a “nearly man”. He “nearly” kept West Bromwich Albion in the league, he “nearly” got them back up, he “nearly” got Doncaster Rovers promoted, and he “nearly” got Sheffield Wednesday promoted last year; on every occasion he has fallen short. Why do I feel he will do the same this season?

Of those that I think will finish in the play-offs, I am going to go for Ipswich Town to go and win it.

They added really well to their squad in January – perhaps a “1-up” which Town have over Wednesday – and after criticism earlier in the campaign as to their solidity at the back, they seem to have righted those wrongs at just the right time to put a run of results together. Of these four sides, they have the most firepower in their side and are more flexible in their approach to be able to problem solve actions any potential problems which may rear their head further down the line.

Wednesday have been relentless this season, but I have a feeling that they will fall short once again.

Relegation

21st – Oxford United
If you had told me at the start of the season whether or not I would have Oxford United in my League One bottom four going into the final international break of the campaign, I’d have told you were mad. But, as the season has unfolded and I have taken stock of what there is left to play this season, I genuinely find myself predicting United to go down.

It seems at the moment that whatever United do, it ends in the wrong outcome, and they keep getting dealt problem after problem; a season-ending injury to Lewis Bate the latest in a long line for misfortune for which new boss Liam Manning is left picking up the pieces.

The appointment of Manning was an odd one in my opinion, a club that were in freefall and in need of someone to lead them to safety turning to a manager seemingly judged as not being good enough to help MK Dons do likewise; The Dons are subsequently out of trouble, as Manning’s new side are being dragged further into it.

And, for United fans hoping that they can stay in the division, the remaining games do not make for pretty reading. They’ve still got Peterborough United, Sheffield Wednesday, Bolton Wanderers, Barnsley and an in-form and high-on-confidence Portsmouth; and, we’ve only got 9 games left.

And, as if it could not be any more dramatic for Oxford United, the final day of the season: their opponents? Accrington Stanley. In my opinion, the team they have to beat and the one who I think will end up 20th.

I think it will come down to that game, and United will be hoping they still have a chance when they get there. I don’t know why, but with Coleman’s track record of keeping his side in League One and all of the war scars that have come with it, I think he will find a way. It won’t be pretty, but Coleman finds a way. And, if I was backing one manager to do the job between now and the end of the season, would it be Manning or Coleman? For me, the later.

22nd – Morecambe
You had a feeling that Derek Adams may be able to keep Morecambe in the division, with the experienced former boss returning to his old side. And yet, as the season has gone on, that feeling has got smaller and smaller, and I am now left feeling strongly that they will not stay in League One this term.

Despite a small upturn in fortunes, Morecambe continue to find themselves struggling to compete with the rest of League One. Recent free signings of Oumar Niasse and Pape Souare provide Adams with experience, if not the hungry options he would want, but that in part provides a fitting encapsulation of their season.

While some sides have been able to go out and strengthen, Morecambe have been unable to do so – a hallmark of most of these sides on this list. Striker Cole Stockton, once the leading light, has seen his goals dry up and even the emergence of Adam Mayor has done little to provide them with the spark going forward to muster the fight required.

The Shrimps are holding onto their League One status by their finger nails, and while Adams was able to keep them in the division last season by virtue of a strong end to the season, I do not think we will see similar this.

23rd – Cambridge United
Cambridge United have decided to stick with boss Mark Bonner until the end of the campaign in hope that they can muster a late upturn in fortunes under the man that got them up into League One; unfortunately, it looks like he will also be the man to take them out of it at the wrong end.

Their struggles has been founded – amongst other things – on an inability to score. Despite having Joe Ironside and Sam Smith leading the line, United are the lowest scoring side in the division with only 28. Ultimately, goals win games, and they need to win some games to stay in the league. And, the evidence would suggest – off what we have seen so far – that they will struggle to do so.

That was evident in recent games against MK Dons and Morecambe, games where their lack of quality in the final third saw them pull up short in potentially pivotal fixtures against those sides around them.

Their only win in the last three months has come against Oxford United; that tells you everything you need to know.

Unfortunately, I feel – and indeed most Cambridge United fans feel – that their time in League One is coming to an end.

24th – Forest Green Rovers
Rovers fans had their spirits lifted somewhat as they saw Duncan Ferguson get his first win as boss live on Sky, beating Sheffield Wednesday; the joy, I feel, will be short-lived.

I don’t see that result as setting the tone or being the catalyst for Rovers suddenly going on a run between now and the end of the season to keep themselves in League One.

Rovers have – for the entire season – been languishing in the bottom four, near enough, and it is no wonder that they have been unable to get themselves out of it, as it speaks volumes of the side which they have at their disposal. They have a youthful group, with characters such as Stevens, Matt and then before that Adams and Wilson having all departed at some point this season; even Luke McGee left the club.

Ferguson has been left with a squad that are in the most part inexperienced, while he himself is a manager only just learning his trade. Does it smack me as a squad with the quality or expertise within it to stay in the division at this late stage? No.