Stockport County have been in a good vein of form under Dave Challinor, with The Hatters still having lost only two games under him in all competitions – and only one in the league, coming in a 2-1 defeat on the road against Torquay United – as they have cemented their spot at the top of the table.
The Hatters seemingly took another step closer to rewarding that improvement under Challinor with the National League title, as they made it nine straight victories with a convincing 3-0 result on the road against King’s Lynn Town.
And, with 2nd-placed Chesterfield falling to a 1-0 defeat to Altrincham and fellow hunter FC Halifax Town also losing yesterday – going down 3-1 at The Racecourse Ground – that meant The Hatters extended their lead at the summit to ten points with a game in hand. The win leaves them well-placed with just ten games remaining, and Challinor will be confident that his side have edged ever closer to securing the league crown.
So, how many points do Stockport County need to indeed make sure that they finish in first place? We assess County’s run-in, looking at how many points they are likely to accumulate between now and the end of the season, and analyse how many points their promotion rivals could well pick up in their remaining fixtures.
How will their rivals fare?
| Team | Projected PPG | Maximum Points Achievable |
| Chesterfield | 82.97 | 93 |
| FC Halifax Town | 88.00 | 99 |
| Wrexham | 86.67 | 98 |
| Solihull Moors | 81.33 | 94 |
| Notts County | 77.65 | 90 |
| Boreham Wood | 79.75 | 84 |
Such has been County’s recent form under Dave Challinor, if The Hatters are – by some miracle – going to miss out on automatic promotion from the National League, then it is going to take both a downturn in their fortunes and indeed an elevation in that of their rivals.
County currently sit top of the table with 76 points. A simple calculation of the projected Points-per-Game tallies for those sides in the chasing pack provides clear indication of just how close they potentially are to sealing the title, with the maximum tally of any one side below calculated as 88 points, meaning that if the chasing sides were to maintain their current PPG, County would need only four points to at least tie in first.
Taking into account the fact that we are nearing the business end of the season and sides will no doubt endure a much tougher end, it is more than likely that these sides will fail to match their PPG over the course of the run-in, and as such the tallies that the chasing pack finish with will no doubt be lower than that projected.
And, with the way that County are playing at the moment, it seems somewhat out of the question for Challinor’s men not to at least secure that required return of 12 points from their remaining fixtures, given that they play three sides in and around mid-table – Yeovil Town, Eastleigh and Southend United – between now and the end of the campaign, games that they should win.
Games remaining
March comes to a close with an away trip against Eastleigh, in what should be a fairly straight forward encounter for Challinor’s men, against a Spitfires outfit that have struggled under new boss Lee Bradbury.
April kicks off with a diversion away from the league in the form of an FA Trophy semi-final away to Wrexham in what will provide us with a good barometer of where this Hatters side are at, having yet to really play a top side aside from Chesterfield. They then return to home soil with a potentially tricky tie against a Southend United side that have impressed under Kevin Maher. In addition to a game against Yeovil Town, the month is hall-marked with three tough encounters against sides in the mix for the play-offs, with an away trip to Grimsby Town coupled with home encounters against Solihull Moors and Boreham Wood.
May proves to be a hugely challenging month for The Hatters if they indeed need points to get over the line, as they play three sides hot on their heels, with back-to-back away trips against Chesterfield and Wrexham, before a final day encounter at home to FC Halifax Town. The month also sees a home clash against Torquay United, the only side that have been able to beat The Hatters in the league under Challinor since he took charge.
So, how many points will Stockport County end up on? I think that they will get three points away to Eastleigh, with The Hatters’ attacking contingent too potent to not get the better of an Eastleigh side that have struggled defensively. Similarly, ties against Southend United and Yeovil Town should be fairly comfortable for County, and indeed I expect Challinor’s men to record three points in these games too. Home advantage could well see them through in the games against Solihull Moors and Boreham Wood, while at this stage of the season, get something from their trip to Blundell Park will be a good point for Challinor. The final month is of course tricky, and factoring in possible defeats to Wrexham and Chesterfield, I can see them finishing the season strongly with back-to-back wins on home soil.
That return would move them onto 98 points, and that is indeed a tally that should see them over the line to clinch the National League title.
So, how many points do Stockport County indeed need to ensure they finish as Champions?
| Team | Points to win the title |
| Sutton United (2020-21) | 84 |
| Barrow (2019-20) | 70* (87 on PPPG) |
| Leyton Orient (2018-19) | 89 |
| Macclesfield Town (2017-18) | 92 |
| Lincoln City (2016-17) | 99 |
| Cheltenham Town (2015-16) | 101 |
Looking at the previous winners of the National League, the lowest tally that a side has needed to win the title in the past six years is 84. Stockport County are already on 76 points as things stand, and so are well-placed to far surpass that tally, and you would certainly be surprised if they indeed do not get well beyond that 84-point mark between now and the end of the season.
One thing that you can also observe when looking at the past winners is that the points required to win the league has been on a downward trajectory. From the 2015-16 campaign with Cheltenham Town in which they amassed 101 points on their way to the National League title, every year since the points of the Champions has reduced, and even though Barrow finished the campaign early with just 70 points due to the Coronavirus pandemic, calculation of the projected points per game (PPPG) works out at 87, and so that quite nicely fits into the trend that we can observe.
Having said that, I think that this trend will be ended this year, as I believe Stockport County will surpass 84 points with relative ease, and while I have indeed predicted them to finish up on 98 points, a more sensible prediction sees them in and around the 90-point mark, a tally that I would still say is enough to seal the title. In my calculations, I factored in that they would lose to Chesterfield and Wrexham, as well as draw with Grimsby Town, and that takes them to 98. Even if we recalculate that tally to 90 – so for instance saying they will draw four of the games I think they’ll win – the chasing pack would need to at least get 24 points from their remaining games.
Chesterfield are on 66 points, and would need to pick up 24 points out of a possible 27 remaining, while FC Halifax Town also 24 points but out of a potential 33 left to play for this campaign . Wrexham would need to amass 25 points out of a possible 33 remaining. And, while the final month of the campaign indeed sees The Hatters play each of those sides, a final day encounter against FC Halifax Town gives them the somewhat security of knowing they have a home game in front of their supporters if for whatever reason they do need to pick up the points.
As such, I think that Stockport County will indeed get over the line. The way that they are playing at the moment, it would not surprise me in the slightest if they go into the final month of the campaign having won every league game that they play during the interim, meaning that they would enter May on 94 points. That tally in itself will be enough to see them win the title, and the final two games being at home – including against a side on the beach in Torquay United – gives them the comfort that they need to indeed go and get a couple extra points if they indeed find that 94 is not enough.
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